Typy na mecz Qinwen Zheng — Mirra Andreeva

The ranking gap is a poor guide to Zheng’s current level. After the Florida reset with Pere Riba, she beat Keys and Swiatek at the US Open, then Svitolina and Mertens in Beijing. Her 7-5, 6-2 semifinal against Mertens, who had removed Gauff and Swiatek, was controlled aggression, backed by eight aces.

Andreeva remains the deserved favourite: she is fresher, prepared her returns with Conchita Martínez for big hitters, and beat Bartunkova 6-2, 6-2. But Zheng is at home, calls Beijing her “fifth Grand Slam,” and beat Andreeva here in 2024 after losing the first set. The +3.5 games leaves room for a close defeat as well as a win.

Andreeva has let leads tighten: match points against Gauff went begging, she failed to serve out against Fernandez, and Alexandrova forced a tiebreak after she served for the match. That makes Zheng’s handicap more appealing than her outright price; the 21.5-game total looks about right, with both lopsided sets and long ones in play.

The concern is workload: Zheng played three deciding sets early in the week, two near three hours. If that catches up with her, the handicap can still be overwhelmed.