Typy na mecz Karolina Muchowa — Nikola Bartunkova

Muchova’s Beijing tennis has required more correction than control. She came back from a set down against Samsonova, then spent nearly three hours against Osaka: she failed to serve out the first set, lost the second 1-6 and missed several match points. “I was shaking,” she said. The backhand also leaked errors under pressure.

Bartunkova +3.5 games accounts for that unevenness without requiring an upset. She beat Sabalenka in straight sets, saving all five break points, and recovered after losing the middle set to Kraus. Her first-serve numbers were strong in both matches: 24 of 29 points against Sabalenka, 30 of 35 against Kraus, with ten aces against Kraus. The two practise together in Prague, so Muchova’s changes of pace should bring less surprise.

The price is attractive for a line that covers a Bartunkova win, most three-set Muchova wins and tight two-setters. The outright win is too binary: Muchova remains unbeaten in deciding-set tie-breaks this season. Over 21.5 is less useful, since a clean straight-sets win for Bartunkova could stay under. Muchova’s class is the risk; she has already shown she can find a way through close finishes.