Typy na mecz Karolina Muchowa — Liudmila Samsonova

Under 20.5 games starts with Samsonova’s service numbers: against Linda Fruhvirtova, she made three double faults and won only 12 of 37 points behind her second serve. Muchova recovered against Katie Boulter, took the first-set tie-break and won the second 6-1; she also pressured Anhelina Kalinina’s serve while protecting her own.

Samsonova’s recent losses show how quickly a set can get away once she loses the initiative: she managed two games in the second against Peyton Stearns after losing the tie-break, one in the decider against Cori Gauff, and two in each of the last two sets against Maya Joint. A straight-sets Muchova win, even 6-4 6-4, stays under; so would a straight-sets Samsonova upset. A tie-break-heavy match or a decider is what threatens the line.

At 1.90, the price is worth taking. Muchova −4.5 asks for a clearer margin than I expect if Samsonova’s aggressive start makes one set close; Muchova to win at 1.28 offers too little.

The risk is that close opening set, especially with Samsonova’s first serve firing. Muchova also let Emma Navarro take the closing games of both sets at the US Open. A third set would almost certainly send the total over.